TL;DR
As described in the Part 1 of the Russian Disassembly Trilogy, the disintegration of the Russian Federation will happen in several phases. Although the boundaries of these phases are somewhat vague, they will still appear in order when each distinct phase will serve as a trigger for the next phase:
1. The first phase between 2023-2026 when Russia loses a part of its far east colonies and small nation-states of Caucasus and Altai mountains.
2. The second phase between 2024-2027 when Russia loses a part of its resource rich Siberian and Volga-Ural provinces and another piece of Caucasus lands.
3. The third phase between 2026-2033 when Russia loses all its colonies beyond the Ural mountains and more nation-states in the Volga-Ural, Caspian, and Caucasus regions.
4. The final phase between 2028-2040 when Russia loses almost all territories east of the Volga river and south of the Don river as well as a part of former Velykyi Novgorod provinces on the west.
The First Disassembly of Russia - Caucasus and Far East
The first stage of the Russian disassembly will happen as soon as the Civil War starts between 2023-2026 and will be led by the clearly separatist regions on the Russian periphery which are already waiting for the Russian period of weakness.
Amuria
Although Russia is called the prison of nations, the first region to part with Russia and accelerate the further disassembly is, ironically, populated primarily by russians - the far-east Khabarovsk Krai. This region is known as the least controlled region of Russia, and is constantly protesting against the Putin's regime even during recent years when other regions were mercilessly "pacified". Moreover, even the Khabarovsk Krai governor was assigned by local elites, not personally Vladimir Putin - something unimaginable for the russian autocracy. Thus, as soon as the Russian Civil War starts on the european part of Russia, the far east will seek for the ways to escape. The Khabarovsk Krai elites are known to be strong in covert ops and palace intrigues. Thus, there would be no surprise if they will side with the local branch of FSB (Federal Security Service, an internal intelligency agency of the Russian Federation) and the Navy commandment of the Russian Pacific Fleet which headquartered in the city of Vladivostok. As this region is already more tied economically to China and Japan than it is to Russia, regional elites might seek political support from these states as well. After these preparations (which might be ongoing while I write this), as soon as the Russian Civil War starts, these elites will declare the independence of the far east region of Russia.
Most probably, it will be a joint declaration by the economically tied Khabarovsk Krai, Primorsky Krai, Amur Oblast, Sakhalin Oblast (including Kuril Islands), and Jewish Autonomous Oblast. A new name of this state is hard to guess, but Amuria seems just nice to me. The capital will most probably be moved from Khabarovsk (which is the home to many local businesses and the regional bureaucracy of the richest and the biggest of these provinces) to a more distant from the Chine border and safer small city Amursk. With land area of over 1'440'000 sq km and population of over 4'500'000 citizens (over 85% - Russians), sparsely populated Amuria will enter the top 20 largest states in the world, comparable to Mongolia or Peru by size, but much smaller Mauritania or Panama by population.
Russia might decide to invade the new state in order to prevent its independence, however, if the russian Pacific Fleet (headquartered in Vladivostok) is seized during the first days of the independence, any land-based campaign would be extremely difficult to undertake by the russians. Potentially, Russia would be able to occupy the mineral-rich northern regions of the Khabarovsk Krai, but no more than that. The control over the Pacific Fleet would allow Amuria to protect its sovereignty over the Kuril Islands. The return of the southern Kuril Islands - Kunashir, Shikotan (and smaller Habomai Islands), but maybe also Iturup and Urup - to Japan would allow Amuria to sign the historic peace treaty with Japan or even secure the economic and defence treaty with Japan. Similarly, Amuria might return several distutable islands on the Amur river to China in exchange for its political protection and economic ties.
At a later time Amuria might compete for the regions of Magadan Oblast, Kamchatka Krai, and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug; but most probably their residents would not agree to join Amuria. Also, the world powers would not be interested in such turnaround; therefore this outcome is less probable. See the section below about Yakutia (Sakha) for the more detailed explanation.
Properly balancing between the top political, military, and economic neighbouring powerhouses - USA, Japan, and China - Amuria has all the chances to become more prosperous alone than under the rule of russian kleptocracy. A fact that the majority of Amuria residents are and will remain russian-speaking will not stop their independence, as it will be driven primarily by the economic factors. Despite Amuria citizens seeming unified by one language (a far-east dialect of Russian), ethnically more than third of its population are ethnically rusified Ukrainians, Manchurians, Koreans, and Ainu - ethnicities with the strong liberty gene; no more than one third are pure Russian colonists. Thus, within 2 decades this young nation of multi-ethnic origin have all chances to become the east eurasian forthpost of democracy, at the same stage in its evolution like Ukraine is today. Source
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